Market Power, Climate Change, and Vulnerability in Food Value Chains in Tanzania (MAPOCAVU)

project summary

Climate change is no longer a distant threat—it is already disrupting how food is produced, traded, and consumed.In Eastern Africa, including Tanzania, unpredictable weather patterns such as droughts, floods, and erratic rains are hitting farmers hard. These challenges threaten not only crop yields and soil health but also the ability of low-income households—both rural and urban—to access affordable food. Many development efforts focus on helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change, but they often overlook the powerful businesses that sit between farmers and consumers. Large traders and food processors can play a role in building resilience, but they can also worsen inequalities by controlling prices, limiting market access, and squeezing out smaller players in the value chain.
MAPOCAVU explores these dynamics in Tanzania by examining the value chains of two key staple crops: maize and rice. These form the backbone of the country’s food system and are also exported when allowed by government policy. MAPOCAVU focuses on how market power—the influence that large firms have over how food is grown, transported, and sold—shapes the vulnerability of both farmers and consumers, especially the poorest.
Contrary to common assumptions, Tanzania’s food markets are not made up of many small, independent traders. Instead, they are increasingly dominated by a few large firms that control agricultural inputs (like seeds and fertilizers), storage, transport, and processing. This concentration often leads to higher costs for farmers and fewer affordable choices for consumers. At the same time, many solutions focus too narrowly on local-level interventions, ignoring the regional nature of food systems. For example, a drought in one area may be offset by a bumper harvest in another—yet national policies like export bans can block food from reaching where it’s most needed.
MAPOCAVU argues that these challenges must be addressed at the local, national, and regional levels by examining how power and profit shape every stage of the food chain. The project also highlights the need to consider both rural and urban consumers, who are often left out of climate and food policy discussions. Ultimately, MAPOCAVU seeks to influence policy by offering more accurate insights into the links between climate change, business power, and food-related vulnerability. The goal is to help build more just and resilient food systems in Tanzania—and across Eastern Africa.