A just and sustainable transformation of fish farming in Lake Victoria, Kenya (AJUST)

project summary

Fish farming in Lake Victoria has become one of Kenya’s fastest-growing food sectors, providing jobs and affordable fish for many households, including women and young people. Yet this promising industry faces serious challenges. Climate change and fertiliser runoff have made the lake warmer and more nutrient-rich, causing poor water quality, fish kills, and economic losses. At the same time, cages are often placed in unsuitable areas, creating conflicts over lake use and jeopardising the future of small-scale farmers.
To address these problems, the Kenyan government is introducing a new Spatial Climate Adaptation Plan (SCAP) that regulates the placement of fish cages and limits production according to the lake’s capacity. While the plan aims to protect the environment and secure sustainable fish production, it may have unintended effects. Small-scale farmers could be pushed out by larger investors, and vulnerable groups may lose access to the benefits of aquaculture.
The AJUST project will examine how this plan affects the lake’s environment, fish production, incomes, and fairness. The objective is to identify ways of making aquaculture both sustainable and socially just, ensuring that growth benefits local communities and vulnerable groups while protecting the ecosystem.
To achieve this, we will 1) Model how climate change and cage farming affect water quality and fish habitats, 2) Estimate how new regulations influence production, profits, and food security, 3) Study how changes in farming practices impact the value chain from feed suppliers to traders and consumers, 4) Assess how fair and inclusive the new rules are for groups such as women, youth, and small-scale farmers and jointly explore future scenarios, co-developing recommendations that are both practical and fair.
AJUST will strengthen local research capacity by training four Kenyan PhD students and four master’s students, creating a new generation of experts in aquaculture, climate adaptation, and governance. By integrating environmental, economic, and social perspectives, and by collaborating closely with those directly affected, the project will offer guidance on policies that promote food security, livelihoods, and environmental justice in Kenya and beyond.