Changing natural habitats under future climates

project summary

Forest ecosystems are increasingly under threat from climate and land use changes and degradation. Conservation and sustainable use strategies could include the diversification of agricultural landscapes, restoration of degraded landscapes and conservation of areas of high biodiversity value. Key to these adaptation strategies is the identification of conservation priorities and better utilization of valuable tree species in and outside forests. This requires the selection of well-adapted species. For most tree species in Eastern Africa, there is limited information available on their suitability for use in different environments. However, dynamic species suitability distribution maps for large number of species can be inferred from the distribution of vegetation types and their species assemblages, using high resolution global environmental data sets, derived geospatial data such as topographic indices and new habitat distribution modelling approaches. Moreover, these maps can project changes of habitat and species distributions under specific climate change models. Key research questions are: (i) how can spatial suitability models help to predict changes in vegetation and tree species distribution under different climate change scenarios and (ii) how can conservation and sustainable use strategies under current and future climates be improved in eastern Africa?